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    The Eatwell Guide: Modelling the Health Implications of Incorporating New Sugar and Fibre Guidelines

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    Author
    Cobiac, LJ; Scarborough, P; Kaur, A; Rayner, M
    Date
    2016-12-20
    Source Title
    PLoS One
    Publisher
    PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE
    University of Melbourne Author/s
    COBIAC, LINDA
    Affiliation
    Melbourne School of Population and Global Health
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Document Type
    Journal Article
    Citations
    Cobiac, L. J., Scarborough, P., Kaur, A. & Rayner, M. (2016). The Eatwell Guide: Modelling the Health Implications of Incorporating New Sugar and Fibre Guidelines. PLOS ONE, 11 (12), https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0167859.
    Access Status
    Open Access
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/11343/257678
    DOI
    10.1371/journal.pone.0167859
    Abstract
    OBJECTIVE: To model population health impacts of dietary changes associated with the redevelopment of the UK food-based dietary guidelines (the 'Eatwell Guide'). METHOD: Using multi-state lifetable methods, we modelled the impact of dietary changes on cardiovascular disease, diabetes and cancers over the lifetime of the current UK population. From this model, we determined change in life expectancy and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) that could be averted. RESULTS: Changing the average diet to that recommended in the new Eatwell Guide, without increasing total energy intake, could increase average life expectancy by 5.4 months (95% uncertainty interval: 4.7 to 6.2) for men and 4.0 months (3.4 to 4.6) for women; and avert 17.9 million (17.6 to 18.2) DALYs over the lifetime of the current population. A large proportion of the health benefits are from prevention of type 2 diabetes, with 440,000 (400,000 to 480,000) new cases prevented in men and 340,000 (310,000 to 370,000) new cases prevented in women, over the next ten years. Prevention of cardiovascular diseases and colorectal cancer is also large. However, if the diet recommended in the new Eatwell Guide is achieved with an accompanying increase in energy intake (and thus an increase in body mass index), around half the potential improvements in population health will not be realised. CONCLUSIONS: The dietary changes required to meet recommendations in the Eatwell Guide, which include eating more fruits and vegetables and less red and processed meats and dairy products, are large. However, the potential population health benefits are substantial.

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