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    Mapping the zoonotic niche of Lassa fever in Africa

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    Author
    Mylne, AQN; Pigott, DM; Longbottom, J; Shearer, F; Duda, KA; Messina, JP; Weiss, DJ; Moyes, CL; Golding, N; Hay, SI
    Date
    2015-08-01
    Source Title
    Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
    Publisher
    OXFORD UNIV PRESS
    University of Melbourne Author/s
    Golding, Nicholas; Shearer, Freya
    Affiliation
    School of BioSciences
    Melbourne School of Population and Global Health
    Metadata
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    Document Type
    Journal Article
    Citations
    Mylne, A. Q. N., Pigott, D. M., Longbottom, J., Shearer, F., Duda, K. A., Messina, J. P., Weiss, D. J., Moyes, C. L., Golding, N. & Hay, S. I. (2015). Mapping the zoonotic niche of Lassa fever in Africa. TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF TROPICAL MEDICINE AND HYGIENE, 109 (8), pp.483-492. https://doi.org/10.1093/trstmh/trv047.
    Access Status
    Open Access
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/11343/257968
    DOI
    10.1093/trstmh/trv047
    Abstract
    BACKGROUND: Lassa fever is a viral haemorrhagic illness responsible for disease outbreaks across West Africa. It is a zoonosis, with the primary reservoir species identified as the Natal multimammate mouse, Mastomys natalensis. The host is distributed across sub-Saharan Africa while the virus' range appears to be restricted to West Africa. The majority of infections result from interactions between the animal reservoir and human populations, although secondary transmission between humans can occur, particularly in hospital settings. METHODS: Using a species distribution model, the locations of confirmed human and animal infections with Lassa virus (LASV) were used to generate a probabilistic surface of zoonotic transmission potential across sub-Saharan Africa. RESULTS: Our results predict that 37.7 million people in 14 countries, across much of West Africa, live in areas where conditions are suitable for zoonotic transmission of LASV. Four of these countries, where at-risk populations are predicted, have yet to report any cases of Lassa fever. CONCLUSIONS: These maps act as a spatial guide for future surveillance activities to better characterise the geographical distribution of the disease and understand the anthropological, virological and zoological interactions necessary for viral transmission. Combining this zoonotic niche map with detailed patient travel histories can aid differential diagnoses of febrile illnesses, enabling a more rapid response in providing care and reducing the risk of onward transmission.

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