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    Disease surveillance based on Internet-based linear models: an Australian case study of previously unmodeled infection diseases

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    Author
    Rohart, F; Milinovich, GJ; Avril, SMR; Cao, K-AL; Tong, S; Hu, W
    Date
    2016-12-20
    Source Title
    Scientific Reports
    Publisher
    NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
    University of Melbourne Author/s
    Le Cao, Kim-Anh
    Affiliation
    School of Mathematics and Statistics
    Metadata
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    Document Type
    Journal Article
    Citations
    Rohart, F., Milinovich, G. J., Avril, S. M. R., Cao, K. -A. L., Tong, S. & Hu, W. (2016). Disease surveillance based on Internet-based linear models: an Australian case study of previously unmodeled infection diseases. SCIENTIFIC REPORTS, 6 (1), https://doi.org/10.1038/srep38522.
    Access Status
    Open Access
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/11343/258432
    DOI
    10.1038/srep38522
    Abstract
    Effective disease surveillance is critical to the functioning of health systems. Traditional approaches are, however, limited in their ability to deliver timely information. Internet-based surveillance systems are a promising approach that may circumvent many of the limitations of traditional health surveillance systems and provide more intelligence on cases of infection, including cases from those that do not use the healthcare system. Infectious disease surveillance systems built on Internet search metrics have been shown to produce accurate estimates of disease weeks before traditional systems and are an economically attractive approach to surveillance; they are, however, also prone to error under certain circumstances. This study sought to explore previously unmodeled diseases by investigating the link between Google Trends search metrics and Australian weekly notification data. We propose using four alternative disease modelling strategies based on linear models that studied the length of the training period used for model construction, determined the most appropriate lag for search metrics, used wavelet transformation for denoising data and enabled the identification of key search queries for each disease. Out of the twenty-four diseases assessed with Australian data, our nowcasting results highlighted promise for two diseases of international concern, Ross River virus and pneumococcal disease.

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