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    Early subjective completion beliefs and the demand for post-secondary education

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    Author
    Kunz, JS; Staub, KE
    Date
    2020-09
    Source Title
    Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization
    Publisher
    Elsevier
    University of Melbourne Author/s
    Staub, Kevin
    Affiliation
    Economics
    Metadata
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    Document Type
    Journal Article
    Citations
    Kunz, J. S. & Staub, K. E. (2020). Early subjective completion beliefs and the demand for post-secondary education. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 177, pp.34-55. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2020.05.015.
    Access Status
    This item is embargoed and will be available on 2023-09-01
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/11343/258557
    DOI
    10.1016/j.jebo.2020.05.015
    ARC Grant code
    ARC/DE170100644
    Abstract
    We provide a comprehensive empirical analysis on the role of beliefs about the probability of completing post-secondary education, elicited before the end of secondary school, for students’ future education choices. Although there is substantial evidence on the relevance of subjective beliefs for returns to post-secondary education conditional on completion, there is little evidence linking early beliefs to the extensive margin of completing a degree. We exploit (i) a representative population sample which (ii) follows students over a long time horizon, two key features largely absent from the previous literature on subjective beliefs. We find that completion beliefs are mainly related to cognitive and non-cognitive skills, as opposed to family background or opportunities in the local labor market. Completion beliefs elicited before the end of secondary school are highly predictive for later key education outcomes, with a predictive accuracy comparable to an econometric model with perfect foresight. Assessing the heterogeneity of the relationship, our results imply that beliefs are most important for lower ability students and in times of tougher local labor markets.

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