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dc.contributor.authorWhite, MT
dc.contributor.authorShirreff, G
dc.contributor.authorKarl, S
dc.contributor.authorGhani, AC
dc.contributor.authorMueller, I
dc.date.accessioned2021-02-05T01:17:58Z
dc.date.available2021-02-05T01:17:58Z
dc.date.issued2016-03-30
dc.identifierpii: rspb.2016.0048
dc.identifier.citationWhite, M. T., Shirreff, G., Karl, S., Ghani, A. C. & Mueller, I. (2016). Variation in relapse frequency and the transmission potential of Plasmodium vivax malaria. PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, 283 (1827), https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2016.0048.
dc.identifier.issn0962-8452
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11343/260342
dc.description.abstractThere is substantial variation in the relapse frequency of Plasmodium vivax malaria, with fast-relapsing strains in tropical areas, and slow-relapsing strains in temperate areas with seasonal transmission. We hypothesize that much of the phenotypic diversity in P. vivax relapses arises from selection of relapse frequency to optimize transmission potential in a given environment, in a process similar to the virulence trade-off hypothesis. We develop mathematical models of P. vivax transmission and calculate the basic reproduction number R0 to investigate how transmission potential varies with relapse frequency and seasonality. In tropical zones with year-round transmission, transmission potential is optimized at intermediate relapse frequencies of two to three months: slower-relapsing strains increase the opportunity for onward transmission to mosquitoes, but also increase the risk of being outcompeted by faster-relapsing strains. Seasonality is an important driver of relapse frequency for temperate strains, with the time to first relapse predicted to be six to nine months, coinciding with the duration between seasonal transmission peaks. We predict that there is a threshold degree of seasonality, below which fast-relapsing tropical strains are selected for, and above which slow-relapsing temperate strains dominate, providing an explanation for the observed global distribution of relapse phenotypes.
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherROYAL SOC
dc.titleVariation in relapse frequency and the transmission potential of Plasmodium vivax malaria
dc.typeJournal Article
dc.identifier.doi10.1098/rspb.2016.0048
melbourne.affiliation.departmentMedical Biology (W.E.H.I.)
melbourne.affiliation.facultyMedicine, Dentistry & Health Sciences
melbourne.source.titleProceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
melbourne.source.volume283
melbourne.source.issue1827
dc.rights.licenseCC BY
melbourne.elementsid1052563
melbourne.contributor.authorKarl, Stephan
melbourne.contributor.authorWhite, Michael
melbourne.contributor.authorMueller, Ivo
dc.identifier.eissn1471-2954
melbourne.accessrightsOpen Access


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