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dc.contributor.authorMeehl, Gerald A.en_US
dc.contributor.authorGoddard, Lisaen_US
dc.contributor.authorMURPHY, JAMESen_US
dc.contributor.authorStouffer, Ronald J.en_US
dc.contributor.authorBoer, Georgeen_US
dc.contributor.authorDanabasoglu, Gokhanen_US
dc.contributor.authorDixon, Keithen_US
dc.contributor.authorGiorgetta, Marco A.en_US
dc.contributor.authorGreene, Arthur M.en_US
dc.contributor.authorHawkins, Eden_US
dc.contributor.authorHegerl, Gabrieleen_US
dc.contributor.authorKAROLY, DAVIDen_US
dc.contributor.authorKeenlyside, Noelen_US
dc.contributor.authorKimoto, Masahideen_US
dc.contributor.authorKirtman, Benen_US
dc.contributor.authorNavarra, Antonioen_US
dc.contributor.authorPulwarty, Rogeren_US
dc.contributor.authorSmith, Dougen_US
dc.contributor.authorStammer, Detlefen_US
dc.contributor.authorStockdale, Timothyen_US
dc.date.accessioned2014-05-22T07:03:43Z
dc.date.available2014-05-22T07:03:43Z
dc.date.issued2009en_US
dc.identifier.citationMeehl, G. A., Goddard, L., Murphy, J., Stouffer, R. J., Boer, G., Danabasoglu, G., et al. (2009). Decadal prediction: can it be skilful? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90, 1467–1485, doi: 10.1175/2009BAMS2778.1.en_US
dc.identifier.issn0003-0007en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11343/32785
dc.description© Copyright 2009 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC §108, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a web site or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy, available on the AMS Web site located at (http://www.ametsoc.org/) or from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or copyrights@ametsoc.org.en_US
dc.description.abstractA new field of study, “decadal prediction,” is emerging in climate science. Decadal prediction lies between seasonal/interannual forecasting and longer-term climate change projections, and focuses on time-evolving regional climate conditions over the next 10–30 yr. Numerous assessments of climate information user needs have identified this time scale as being important to infrastructure planners, water resource managers, and many others. It is central to the information portfolio required to adapt effectively to and through climatic changes. At least three factors influence time-evolving regional climate at the decadal time scale: 1) climate change commitment (further warming as the coupled climate system comes into adjustment with increases of greenhouse gases that have already occurred), 2) external forcing, particularly from future increases of greenhouse gases and recovery of the ozone hole, and 3) internally generated variability. Some decadal prediction skill has been demonstrated to arise from the first two of these factors, and there is evidence that initialized coupled climate models can capture mechanisms of internally generated decadal climate variations, thus increasing predictive skill globally and particularly regionally. Several methods have been proposed for initializing global coupled climate models for decadal predictions, all of which involve global time-evolving three-dimensional ocean data, including temperature and salinity. An experimental framework to address decadal predictability/prediction is described in this paper and has been incorporated into the coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Model, phase 5 (CMIP5) experiments, some of which will be assessed for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). These experiments will likely guide work in this emerging field over the next 5 yr.en_US
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherAmerican Meteorological Societyen_US
dc.subjectclimate scienceen_US
dc.subjectdecadal predictionen_US
dc.subjectclimate modelsen_US
dc.titleDecadal prediction: can it be skilful?en_US
dc.typeJournal Articleen_US
melbourne.peerreviewPeer Revieweden_US
melbourne.affiliationThe University of Melbourneen_US
melbourne.affiliation.departmentScience - Earth Sciencesen_US
melbourne.publication.statusPublisheden_US
melbourne.source.titleBulletin of the American Meteorological Societyen_US
melbourne.source.volume90en_US
melbourne.source.pages1467–1485en_US
melbourne.elementsidNA
melbourne.contributor.authorKaroly, David
melbourne.accessrightsOpen Access


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