Baynesian evidence on the structure of unemployment

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    Author
    Summers, Peter M.
    Date
    2003-02
    University of Melbourne Author/s
    SUMMERS, PETER
    Affiliation
    Economics and Commerce: Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research
    Metadata
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    Document Type
    Preprint
    Citations
    Summers, Peter M. (2003) Baynesian evidence on the structure of unemployment.
    Access Status
    Open Access
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/11343/33728
    Description

    ISSN 1328-4991 (Print) ISSN 1447-5863 (Online) ISBN 0734031157 Melbourne Institute Working Paper No. 3/03
    Abstract
    This paper presents a Bayesian assessment of the likelihood of unit roots in the unemployment rates of 16 OECD countries. Bayesian techniques for detecting multiple structural breaks in time series have recently been developed by Wang and Zivot (2000). I apply these tests to a data set recently analyzed by Papell et al (2000). I also treat the number of structural breaks as an additional parameter to be estimated. I find virtually no support for unit root hysteresis in OECD unemployment rates, this result is very robust to the choice of prior
    Keywords
    Multiple structural breaks; Bayesian analysis; unit root; unemployment rate JEL classification: C220 Econometric methods: single equation models: time-series models; C110 Bayesian analysis; E240 Macroeconomics: employment; unemployment; wages; wage indexation

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