Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research - Research Publications
Now showing items 1-12 of 369
Locus of Control and Investment in Risky Assets
Internal locus of control is an important personality trait strongly related to many economic outcomes. We show that the probability to own equity and the share of equity in household portfolios increase with people’s internal locus of control. We explore, and find no evidence for, the hypothesis that this relation is driven by a link between internal economic locus of control and subjective expectations about the return and risk of investment in equity. The relation between locus of control and investment in equity also remains after controlling for risk and time preferences, financial literacy, overconfidence, optimism, trust, and other personality traits. We also show that locus of control has a stronger relation with investment in equity for financially illiterate investors. Our results document a strong and robust relation between locus of control and investment behaviour that cannot be explained by leading behavioural investment theories.
Preoperative opioid use and complications following total joint replacement: a protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis.
(BMJ Journals, 2020-06-16)
INTRODUCTION: Mounting evidence now indicates that preoperative opioid use is associated with an array of complications following total joint replacement (TJR). However, evidence of these risks remains fragmented. A comprehensive and well-integrated understanding of this body of evidence is necessary to appropriately inform treatment decisions, the allocation of limited healthcare resources, and the direction of future clinical research. The proposed systematic review and meta-analysis aims to identify and synthesise the available evidence of an association between opioid use prior to TJR and postoperative complications, categorised by complication type. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will search MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and Web of Science from inception to April 2020. Observational and experimental studies that compare preoperative opioid users who have undergone elective TJR to opioid naïve TJR patients will be included. The primary outcomes will be postoperative complications, which will be categorised as either mortality, morbidity, or joint-related complications. The secondary outcomes will be persistent postoperative opioid use, readmission, and length of stay. Individual study quality will be assessed using the relevant NIH-NHLBI study quality assessment tools. Findings will be reported in narrative and tabular form, and, where possible, odds ratios (dichotomous outcomes) or standardised mean differences (continuous outcomes) will be reported with 95% confidence intervals. Where appropriate, random effect meta-analyses will be conducted for each outcome, and heterogeneity will be quantified using the I2 statistic and Cochran's Q test. This study will be reported in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) and Meta-analyses Of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (MOOSE) guidelines. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval will not be required as no primary or private data are being collected. Findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publication and presentation at academic conferences. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42020153047.
Workplace Bullying and Suicidal Ideation: Findings from an Australian Longitudinal Cohort Study of Mid-Aged Workers.
(MDPI AG, 2020-02-24)
Workplace bullying adversely affects mental health, yet little is known about the outcomes for suicidal ideation. The current study used Australian population-based data to investigate the association between workplace bullying and suicidal ideation. The sample included 1488 employed participants aged 52-58 from wave 4 of the Personality and Total Health (PATH) Through Life Study. Workplace bullying was measured in two ways: (a) a single item asked about experiences of bullying 'currently', 'previously in the current workplace' and 'in a past workplace', and (b) 15 items asked about bullying behaviours experienced in the past 6 months. Suicidal ideation was measured using items from the Psychiatric Symptom Frequency Scale (PSF) and the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9). Psychosocial job quality, both current and prior, was adjusted for. Current and past experiences of workplace bullying were associated with increased risk of suicidal ideation. Current experiences were no longer associated after adjusting for concurrent indicators of psychosocial job stress, although a tendency for increased ideation remained. Reported prior experience of workplace bullying in a past workplace remained associated with higher odds of suicidal ideation after adjusting for prior psychosocial job stressors and excluding individuals with prior suicidal ideation. Being bullied at work is associated with increased risk of suicidal thoughts, although this occurs within the broader influence of other psychologically stressful employment conditions.
A class of demand systems satisfying global regularity and having complete rank flexibility
A class of demand systems based on simple parametric specification of the indirect utility functions, but allowing for the parsimonious imposition of global regularity, is proposed. Demand systems in this class are completely flexible in rank, that is, can be potentially specified to acquire as large a rank as required in empirical work. They also exhibit a clear and reasonable homothetic asymptotic behaviour, as income approaches infinity. In an empirical application using Australian data, several examples from this class are estimated and compared with some popular alternatives in the literature.
Binge Drinking and Antisocial and Unlawful Behaviours in Australia
Economic Society of Australia This paper presents individual-level evidence from Australia to examine the factors associated with binge drinking and several alcohol-related antisocial and unlawful behaviours. We study in particular the role of binge drinking in increasing the likelihood of engaging in these negative behaviours. We use individual-level data from a national representative survey and a system econometric model that allows unobservable factors for all negative behaviours to be correlated. Potential misclassification of individuals' drinking pattern is accounted for. We find evidence of under-reporting for bingeing and significant effects of binge drinking on drink-driving, physical and verbal abuse, public disturbance, and stealing and damaging property.
Effects of integrated chronic care models on hypertension outcomes and spending: a multi-town clustered randomized trial in China
BACKGROUND: Hypertension affects one billion people globally and is one of the leading risk factors for cardiovascular and renal diseases. However, hypertension management remains poor, especially in rural China. METHODS: A clustered randomized controlled trial was conducted in six towns in China's Qianjiang county between 7/2012 and 6/2014, including 5462 hypertension patients above 35 years old. Six towns were randomly assigned to three groups: Group 1 had the integrated care model including a multidisciplinary team and continuous care coordination, Group 2 had both the integrated care model and provider-level financial incentives, and the control group had the usual care. Primary outcomes were systolic blood pressure and health-related quality of life measured by SF36; secondary outcomes included hypertension-related hospitalization rate and inpatient spending. Blood pressure was measured sixteen times bimonthly between 12/1/2011 and 6/30/2014, and quality of life was measured on 7/1/2012 and 6/30/2014. Inpatient data between 7/1/2010 and 8/31/2014 were used. This trial is registered at the World Health Organization's International Clinical Trials Registry, number ChiCTR-OOR-14005563. RESULTS: We found that the integrated care model effectively lowered blood pressure by 1.93 mmHg (95% CI 0.063-3.8), improved self-assessed health-related quality of life, and reduced the rate of hypertension-related hospitalization by 0.17 percentage points (95% CI 0.094-0.24). We also found that the provider-level financial contract further lowered blood pressure by 1.76 mmHg (95% CI 0.73-2.79) and reduced rates of hospitalization and inpatient spending, but it also reduced patients' self-assessed health-related quality of life. CONCLUSIONS: Integrated care and financial incentives are effective in lowering blood pressure and reducing hospitalization rate, but financial contracts may hurt patient quality of life. This trial was registered at the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (ChiCTR-OOR-14005563) on November 23, 2014. It was a retrospective registration.
Keep calm and consume? Subjective uncertainty and precautionary savings
(Springer (part of Springer Nature), 2019-07)
This paper estimates the effect of income uncertainty on assets held in accounts and cash, and finds substantial empirical evidence for precautionary savings. Using household-level panel data, it explicitly distinguishes between ‘real’ income uncertainty the household is actually exposed to, and ‘perceived’ income uncertainty. It finds that the latter substantially increases precautionary savings above and beyond the effect of ‘real’ income uncertainty. The effect of subjective economic uncertainty on behaviour has only begun to show up after the Great Recession. The economic crisis appears to have shifted households’ willingness to forgo current consumption for insurance pruposes. Our results imply that households save above their optimal level especially after and during a crisis, potentially exacerbating the economic downturn.
Parents' Demand for Sugar Sweetened Beverages for Their Pre-School Children: Evidence from a Stated-Preference Experiment
(Oxford University Press (OUP), 2020-03-01)
Consumption of sugar sweetened beverages exhibits strong associations with weight gain, obesity, and dental caries, especially in young children. The aim of this article is to estimate price elasticities for parents' sugar-sweetened beverages consumption choices with respect to their pre-school children and to estimate elasticities with respect to nutritional attribute labels across sugar-sweetened beverages. Our results show that 1% increase in the price of fizzy drink, juice and cordial would reduce pre-school children's consumption of each drink by 0.80%, 0.51%, and 0.34% respectively. Such price effects on children's consumption do not substantially differ between high and low-income respondents but the effect on the children's Fizzy Drink consumption is significantly larger for respondents from large households than those from small households and are significantly lower than the price effects on the consumption of the rest of the family for Juice and Cordial. The marginal effects of demand with respect to nutritional attribute labels of sugar-sweetened beverages matter for Juice and Cordial, and are strongest for low-income families; however, these effects do not substantially differ between large and small-household respondents.
Cream skimming: Theory and evidence from hospital transfers and capacity utilization
The paper examines cream skimming behaviour by studying hospital transfers in a mixed public-private hospital system. A key innovation is the use of capacity utilization to identify cream skimming. We develop a dynamic model with uncertain patient arrivals and hospital capacity constraints to clarify the conditions under which a profit maximizing hospital will engage in patient selection by transferring ‘hard’ patients—those with severe/complex conditions—to free up capacity to accommodate ‘easy’ patients with few severe/complex conditions. Given finite capacity, public hospitals are strictly less likely to transfer patients than profit-motivated private hospitals at the same level of capacity. We test implications of the model using hospital administrative data from Victoria, Australia, and find empirical support for the cream skimming predictions of the model.
The association between mental disorders and suicide: A systematic review and meta-analysis of record linkage studies
Background: There has long been debate about the extent to which mental disorders contribute to suicide. We aimed to examine the evidence on the contribution of mental disorders to suicide among record linkage studies. Methods: We performed a systematic search using eight major health databases for English-language studies published between 1 January 2000 and 11 June 2018 that linked collected data on mental disorders and suicide. We then conducted a meta-analysis to assess risk of suicide conferred by mental disorders. Results: Our search identified 20 articles representing 13 unique studies. The pooled rate ratio (RR) was 13.2 (95% CI 8.6–20.3) for psychotic disorders, 12.3 (95% CI 8.9–17.1) for mood disorders, 8.1 (95% CI 4.6–14.2) for personality disorders, 4.4 (95% CI 2.9–6.8) for substance use disorders, and 4.1 (95% CI 2.4–6.9) for anxiety disorders in the general population. The overall pooled RR for these mental disorders was 7.5 (95% CI 6.6–8.6). The population attributable risk of mental disorders was up to 21%. Limitations: The overall heterogeneity between studies was very high. Conclusions: Our findings underline the important role of mental disorders in suicide. This suggests that ongoing efforts are required to improve access to and quality of mental health care to prevent suicide by people with mental disorders.
Dealing with Time Inconsistency: Inflation Targeting versus Exchange Rate Targeting
Adopting a single instead of multiple targets can be an effective way to overcome the classic time-inconsistency problem. The choice of a single mandate depends on the trade openness and the credibility. Reduced-form empirical results show as central banks become less credible, they are more likely to adopt a pegged exchange rate, and the tendency to peg depends on trade openness. In a model with “loose commitment,” as credibility falls, either an inflation target or a pegged exchange rate is more likely to be adopted.Arelatively closed (highly open) economywould adopt an inflation target (exchange rate peg).