TY  - GEN
AU  - Henry,  Olan T.
AU  - Summers, Peter M.
Y2  - 2014/05/22
Y1  - 2000/03
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/11343/33644
AB  - This paper considers the extent to which fluctuations in Australian economic growth are affected by domestic and overseas economic performance. We investigate the performance of a range of non-linear models versus linear models, comparing the models using Bayes factors and posterior odds ratios. The posterior odds ratios favour non-linear specifications in which luctuations in economic activity in the US affect Australia's economic performance. Our results suggest that an exogenous negative shock will be more persistent, lead to greater output volatility, and have a greater impact on growth, than a positive shock of equal magnitude.
N1  - application/pdf
LA  - eng
KW  - Australian economic growth
KW  - business cycles
KW  - coincident index
KW  - threshold autoregression
KW  - Bayesian model averaging: JEL classification numbers: F41 open economy macroeconomics
KW  - C11 Bayesian analysis
KW  - C22 time-series models
T1  - Australian Economic Growth: Non-linearities and International Influences
L1  - /bitstream/handle/11343/33644/65770_00000055_01_738.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
ER  -